The 2024 Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire; Cautious Optimism
By Randy Pinsky
After over fourteen months of intense cross-border fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, a ceasefire was called on November 27, 2024. Echoing many of the provisions of the 2006 peace agreement, the 60-day truce involves Hezbollah retreating to north of the Litani River, the withdrawal of Israeli troops, and for a buffer zone to be maintained by the Lebanese Armed Forces and UN peacekeepers, enforced by the US and France.
What are the prospects for long-term stability after such a volatile year?
The Conflict
Within twenty-four hours after Hamas’ murderous attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, Hezbollah launched dozens of missiles against Israel in ‘solidarity.’ This has resulted in Israel fighting a multifront war, and the displacement of thousands of Israelis from its northern towns.
The escalation of almost daily rockets launched over the past year led to significant Israeli retaliation action to neutralize the terrorist group, accelerated with the horrifying discovery that Hezbollah had planned an October 7-like attack of its own.
Escalation
Through surgically precise military attacks, the Israeli Defense Force eliminated most of Hezbollah’s top leadership, essentially crippling it from within. Most predominantly was head leader Hassan Nasrallah. Not only had he been “the face and brains of Hezbollah, he was also the group’s link to Iran,” significantly undercutting their knowledge and capabilities.
In light of the relentless missile attacks and “a dramatic escalation of a conflict…that had been characterized by daily tit-for-tat missile strikes over the border,” Israel launched a ground incursion in September 2024. It uncovered and destroyed hundreds of weapons caches as well as smuggling tunnels and rocket launchers, many hidden among civilian homes (largely overlooked by global media in their condemnation of Israel’s military actions).
With the IDF “decapitat[ing] most of Hezbollah’s top leadership” and demolishing most of its arsenal, it is estimated to have eliminated 70-80% of the terrorist group’s capabilities.
But Wait - Wasn’t There a 2006 Peace Treaty?
The second Israel-Lebanon War (2006) ended in a tenuous truce brokered with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), however it was unsustained for various reasons.
First, the UN peacekeepers charged with maintaining a safe and demilitarized buffer zone were issued an observer rather than implementation mandate and thus could not (or did not) intervene when Hezebollah infiltrated and shot rockets from behind the UN trucks.
Second, the Lebanese Armed Forces entrusted with bringing stability to the region and preventing Hezbollah from deploying south of the Litani River did not or again, could not do so, due to a lack of enforcement capability and willingness.
Lastly, the international community intended to monitor and enforce the peace agreement, lost interest once the war ended, enabling the area - and commitment to peace - to be hijacked.
A Pot About to Boil Over
There had thus long been tension simmering between Lebanon and Israel over the years, with the situation being one of “mutual deterrence” and mutual wariness.
This “fragile quiet” where rocket sirens and escapes to the safe rooms were an unacceptable part of Israeli life, finally reached an untenable degree. The IDF decided to take a preventative as opposed to reactive approach to this burgeoning threat[1] and mobilized for action.
Why Was a Ceasefire Possible Now[2] ?
Many wonder why a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was able to be finalized when there have been continual stalemates regarding Hamas and the return of the hostages.
A “convergence of interests” between the stakeholders made such a reconciliation possible.
On the Israeli side, many believe the IDF has accomplished most of its prime military aims to irreversibly weaken the terrorist group’s capabilities. As a result, continuing the war is believed to be a situation of “diminishing returns."
This is compounded by significant conflict fatigue in Israel, especially on the part of the reservists, complicated by internal pressures from Netanyahu’s ultra-Orthodox coalition partners to exempt their members from the military draft.
On the Lebanese side, the country was already in a perilous economic and political state prior to the conflict and is desperate for stability. Many fear a reignition of sectarian tensions due to most of the returning refugees being Shiite (the same branch of Islam as Hezbollah).
More than just this conflict, Israel’s decisive actions has led to a new balance of power in the region and a “new security reality,” sending unequivocally strong warnings to would-be adversaries.
What Does the Ceasefire Entail?
“The announcement today will cease the fighting in Lebanon and secure Israel from the threat of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations operating from Lebanon,” declared the US and France in a joint statement. The hope is to foster the foundation for a “lasting calm.”
Mirroring the provisions of UN Security Resolution 1701 of 2006 which ended the last Israel-Lebanon conflict, Hezbollah fighters are to retreat to the north of the Litani River and Israeli ground forces to withdraw to the ‘Blue Line’ “boundary [which] serves as the de facto border between the two countries.”
The only armed groups to be present south of the Litani River would be the Lebanese military and the UN peacekeeping forces who would be charged with “dismantling all infrastructure and military positions, and confiscat[ing] all unauthorized arms.”
Will It Succeed?
The agreement has been called “a major diplomatic breakthrough…a complicated and delicate process that will be closely watched in the region and beyond,” yet what are the prospects for success given the earlier failure?
There is understandable wariness about the effectiveness of the UN peacekeepers and for the amount of responsibility placed on the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF).[1] According to Lebanese political analyst Nadim Shehadi, “after decades of being on the sidelines and doing, frankly, very little, the LAF suddenly finds itself being forced to really involve itself.”[2]
Is it feasible to expect them to accomplish in two months the stability and peace they were unable to foster in the twenty years since the last agreement?
Due to concerns about enforcement and capability, Israel has argued the need to maintain a presence in the south; a proposition rejected by Lebanon.
There is also a lack of consensus in the Netanyahu government regarding the ceasefire with some pushing to ‘finish the job.’
The ceasefire represents a second chance for the UN and the enforcement bodies to monitor the implementation of the agreement and differentiate it from the last time.
Israeli Brigadier General Assaf Orion, former military liaison to UNIFIL and the Lebanese army (2006-2015), shared his scepticism. “It is difficult to trust an agreement that places enforcement in the hands of the Lebanese security forces, which already failed the first time around.”
In recalling the shaky history of truces in the region, the UN special coordinator for Lebanon cautioned, “nothing less than the full and unwavering commitment of [all] parties is required.”
A Critical Inroad
One essential gain in the ceasefire has been for Hezbollah to unlink the conflict with Israel from Hamas’ war in Gaza; something its former leader Nasrallah vowed it would never do. This entails there can be diplomatic progress not solely contingent on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The severe blow - both military and morale - to its leadership has also served to undercut the ‘axis of resistance’ headed by Iran.
Challenges
Israel has maintained that it will unequivocally take military action in reaction to any breach[3], with both sides testing the limits and blaming one another for perceived transgressions.
A critical concern is that the US and France may not perceive dangers and reactions in the same way Israel does (in some cases critiquing responses as being ‘excessive’).
It is for this reason that “reaching an agreed definition of ‘ceasefire violation’ is paramount” for identifying threats, sharing intelligence and evaluating responses.
Cautious Optimism…and Constant Monitoring
After a year of tit-for-tat cross-border strikes and massive displacement, the region is finally getting a glimpse of a ceasefire. There has been a slow return of residents on both sides and cautious optimism that this will be a critical step for long-term peace, if only sustainable calm.
As a former Pentagon Middle East Advisor stated, the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah is “meant to be a means to an end, and not an end in itself.” It is only if the lessons from the failed Resolution 1701 have been learned and there is enforced adherence to the ceasefire provisions however, that there can be hope for meaningful change.
[1] The plan is to increase the Lebanese troops from 4,000 to 15,000 and the number of UN peacekeepers from 10,000 to 15,000 south of the Litani.
[2] In response to Lebanon’s concerns of insufficient military provisions to complete its expected roles, Italy has offered funding conditional on adherence to the provisions of the ceasefire.
[3] US President Biden told reporters, “If Hezbollah or anyone else breaks the deal and poses a direct threat to Israel, then Israel retains the right to self-defense consistent with international law.”
