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Opinion: Quebec is the next challenge for the Liberals
Winning the leadership was the easy part. Now Justin Trudeau must not simply demonstrate that he has the royal jelly but also prove to Canadians, and especially Quebecers, that the Liberal party is back and ready to govern. Most likely he will have to do so while fighting off Conservative attack ads as well as the NDP’s rearguard action to renounce their socialist roots and claim the “progressive” middle ground, making his task even more daunting.
The first piece of good news for the Liberals is that the results of the last election are largely irrelevant. Countless polls have demonstrated the Liberal brand is strong and there has been no massive shift in public opinion to the right or left. Meanwhile the Harper Conservatives have been trending steadily downward
since 2011 and several recent polls have placed the Liberals well ahead of the NDP and equal to or leading the Conservatives. Yet even the most optimistic Liberals know this is not enough. Many have talked about the need for policy substance. Others have stressed the importance of raising funds, mobilizing supporters and rebuilding their organization from the ground up. All of these issues are important, but it is unrealistic to expect that they can be tackled simultaneously or with equal success. Hence the need to prioritize their “to do” list and decide where to begin their renewal.
Fortunately for the Liberals a second piece of good news can be found in the situation in Quebec, which is volatile and essentially wide open in the run-up to the next federal election. The Conservatives are finished in Quebec for many reasons including Stephen Harper’s tin ear for all things cultural, the Bloc is hampered by an obscure leader, an unpopular PQ government and plummeting support for sovereignty, and the NDP does not appear to have put down substantial roots. In this context Quebec is the Liberals’ to win back.
Quebec is key for the Liberals because regaining the west is a long-term project, the Atlantic and Ontario will return to the Liberal fold in significant numbers in any event, and the NDP — their chief competitors — find themselves in the Official Opposition only because of the 59 seats they won in Quebec. Retake Quebec and the Liberals are on their way back.
Heightened interest in the Liberals was already apparent in that province in 2012, when the total amount of money the party raised, and the number of donors, surpassed both the NDP and the Conservatives. The leadership race began well by having three francophone Quebecers among the candidates. Quebecers tuned in and turned out, as members and supporters, in unexpectedly large numbers, and a recent Leger poll showed the Liberals and Bloc tied for voter support regardless of the eventual leader. With Justin Trudeau as leader, several polls put the party back in first place by a slim margin.
But can they hold on to this lead, and if so, how?
A large part of the Liberals’ success will depend on their continued positioning as the real federalist option. Tom Mulcair’s support for scrapping the Clarity Act was a major error, but it suggests he knows he has a problem on this federalist axis. Justin Trudeau may not have expressed many policy preferences during the leadership race, but he was crystal clear about his position on Quebec, the Constitution and the federation, a position almost identical to his father’s. And, like his father and former prime minister Jean Chrétien, taking such a hard line, when coupled with the promise of responsible federal leadership and positive encouragement about the role the province can play within the federation, is proving a winning combination for him. Not only Quebec federalists approve. With Justin Trudeau as leader, a recent Leger poll shows even the Bloc bleeds support to the Liberals.
Similarly, Quebecers are further left on the traditional left-right axis than many of their fellow countrymen, but they are also pragmatic. Again, the NDP’s frantic attempts over the weekend to jettison much of their socialist baggage shows they are only too aware of this problem as well. But it is the Liberals who own the centre, and the other two parties who are trying hard but so far unsuccessfully to move there. In the end, it will be up to Liberals and their new leader to provide a comprehensive platform for the next election that reminds Quebecers — and all Canadians — that they have been, and are still, the only party that is socially progressive, fiscally responsible and, perhaps most importantly, the most likely to promote federal-provincial co-operation and national unity.
Brooke Jeffrey is a political science professor at Concordia University, author of Divided Loyalties: the Liberal Party of Canada 1984-2006, and a former Liberal advisor.
Related links:
• Department of Political Science
• Brooke Jeffrey’s faculty profile